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Polymarket polls regarding BTC reserve under Trump’s administration have gained traction following comments from David Sacks, Trump’s crypto advisor. Sacks recently revealed on Fox News that working groups have been tasked with studying the feasibility of such a reserve. However, skepticism remains high if you look at Polymarket BTC reserve odds. According to them it is unlikely that a BTC reserve will appear within the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency.
Polymarket Bettors Remain Skeptical
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, shows that market participants are not convinced by Sacks’ statements. According to current betting trends, there’s only a 16% probability that Trump will approve the creation of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve within his administration’s first 100 days. This figure highlights deep skepticism despite Sacks’ confirmation that discussions are underway.
“President Trump has asked us to study that issue, so we are not ready to comment on it yet. But it’s one of the things our working groups are going to look at,” Sacks said during his Fox News interview.
Polymarket’s reluctance may stem from the U.S. government’s historically cautious approach to cryptocurrency. Past regulatory roadblocks and mixed messaging around Bitcoin have contributed to doubts that a swift move toward a national BTC reserve is likely.
Texas Taking the Lead?
While the federal government debates, the State of Texas has shown signs of moving faster in its pursuit of Bitcoin adoption. Polymarket bettors currently give a 53% probability that Texas will sign legislation by 2025 to create its own strategic Bitcoin reserve.
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Texas has long been a crypto-friendly state, with a robust Bitcoin mining industry and several pro-crypto lawmakers advocating for greater blockchain integration. If successful, Texas could become the first U.S. state to establish a formal BTC reserve, setting a precedent for other states and even the federal government to follow.
Senator Lummis Pushes for National BTC Reserve
A separate initiative led by Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming could also pave the way for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Lummis, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, has introduced a bill aimed at creating a “Bitcoin Purchase Program.” This proposal seeks to authorize the acquisition of up to 200,000 BTC annually over five years, with funding partly sourced from revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold reserves.
The bill is currently under review by the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. While Lummis’ proposal aligns with the broader idea of a national BTC reserve, it is not directly tied to the White House’s ongoing discussions.
Michael Saylor’s Take on Protecting the Dollar
One of the biggest supporters of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve is MicroStrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor. Known for his company’s massive Bitcoin holdings, Saylor argues that establishing a BTC reserve could strengthen the U.S. dollar’s position in global markets.
“The best way to protect the dollar is to make sure you retire the debt and become rich,” Saylor said at a conference in November. “The next best way to protect the dollar is to make sure that if anybody ever considers a different capital asset other than the treasury bill, you own it.”
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Saylor’s remarks underscore a growing narrative that Bitcoin can serve as a strategic financial asset, complementing traditional holdings like gold. Advocates believe that diversifying national reserves to include BTC could shield the U.S. economy from potential currency devaluation and rising global demand for digital assets.
What’s Next?
Despite these endorsements and legislative efforts, a national Bitcoin reserve faces significant hurdles. Key concerns include:
- Regulatory Uncertainty: The U.S. has not yet established a clear regulatory framework for Bitcoin, which could complicate efforts to implement a national reserve.
- Political Divisions: While crypto-friendly politicians like Senator Lummis support the idea, others in Congress remain wary of Bitcoin’s volatility and environmental impact.
- Public Perception: The concept of a national BTC reserve may face resistance from traditional finance experts and sections of the public who are unfamiliar with or distrustful of cryptocurrency.
Until these issues are addressed, it’s unlikely that a Bitcoin reserve will be prioritized at the national level, even with ongoing studies by Trump’s administration.
Conclusion
David Sacks’ comments on a potential U.S. Bitcoin reserve have reignited debate within the crypto community. However, Polymarket bettors remain doubtful that the plan will materialize quickly. While states like Texas and figures such as Senator Lummis push forward with their own initiatives, the federal government appears to be moving cautiously.
For now, the market continues to watch closely for signs of tangible progress. If either Texas or Congress successfully passes legislation on a Bitcoin reserve, it could mark a turning point for U.S. cryptocurrency policy and adoption. Until then, skepticism will likely persist among investors and Polymarket users.
