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After reaching a new all-time high earlier today, Bitcoin has only slightly corrected following U.S. media reports confirming Republican Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election. Currently trading just under $74,000 after peaking at an all-time high of $75,358.70 on Gate.io this morning, Bitcoin shows resilience amid political shifts, according to CoinGecko data.
This could be just the beginning of Bitcoin’s bull run, argue experts who cite several major events shaping the market—spot ETF approvals, the halving, and now Trump’s election win as potential catalysts. Samir Kerbage, CIO at crypto asset manager Hashdex, believes these factors could pave the way for a strong start to 2025.
What’s in Store for the Crypto Market?
“Historically, Bitcoin has shown triple-digit returns within the six months following the last three presidential elections, with even larger gains over a 12-month span,” Kerbage noted. “With the halving, growing institutional interest, and improving regulatory clarity, 2025 looks promising for Bitcoin.”
Read Also: What Crypto does Trump Own?
However, some analysts urge caution, suggesting that Trump’s promises to the crypto sector may face delays or shift in priority. Over recent months, Trump has pledged to support Bitcoin as a reserve currency, remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and push crypto-friendly regulations. But Tim Kravchunovsky, CEO of decentralized network Chirp, warns that unmet promises could lead to market volatility if enthusiasm wanes.
“Crypto might not be at the forefront of Trump’s immediate agenda, so if these commitments are delayed, we could see temporary dips in the market,” Kravchunovsky wrote.
This view isn’t isolated. Earlier this week, Bernstein, an investment research firm, suggested that even with a Harris win, Bitcoin would likely rebound due to its broader market fundamentals, indicating that a strong 2025 was already in sight.
Meanwhile, crypto betting site Polymarket has officially resolved its election bets, reflecting Trump’s victory. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan celebrated the success of prediction markets, which consistently showed Trump gaining a lead, even as traditional polls anticipated a tighter race.
“Trust the markets, not the polls,” Coplan posted. “Word is that Trump’s campaign learned of their lead from Polymarket. A historic moment.”
As Bitcoin approaches another landmark year, market watchers will be closely observing how the political landscape interacts with crypto’s momentum.
Expectations of Trump’s Crypto Actions
A president supportive of cryptocurrency can significantly influence the industry’s trajectory through several key actions:
Regulatory Clarity and Favorable Policies
A crypto-friendly administration can establish clear and supportive regulations, reducing uncertainty for businesses and investors. By appointing regulators who understand and favor the crypto sector, the government can create an environment that encourages innovation and growth. For instance, Donald Trump has pledged to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler with a more crypto-friendly regulator, aiming to foster industry expansion under favorable regulations.
Promotion of Institutional Adoption
Supportive policies can facilitate greater institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. By integrating digital assets into the financial system and encouraging traditional financial institutions to engage with crypto, the administration can enhance the sector’s legitimacy and stability. Trump’s proposal to establish a national Bitcoin reserve exemplifies such an initiative, potentially positioning the U.S. as a leader in the global crypto market.
Encouragement of Innovation and Investment
A favorable stance toward crypto can attract investment and stimulate innovation within the industry. By reducing regulatory barriers and offering incentives, the government can encourage startups and established companies to develop new technologies and applications. Trump’s commitment to making the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” reflects an intention to foster a thriving environment for crypto enterprises.
Global Competitiveness
Pro-crypto policies can enhance a nation’s competitiveness in the global digital economy. By leading in crypto adoption and regulation, the country can attract international businesses and talent, strengthening its position in the evolving financial landscape. Trump’s vision to transform the U.S. into a global crypto hub aligns with this objective, aiming to position the nation at the forefront of the digital asset revolution.
In summary, a president who supports cryptocurrency can play a pivotal role in shaping the industry’s future through regulatory clarity, promotion of institutional adoption, encouragement of innovation, and enhancing global competitiveness.
An Opposing View
For years, the crypto industry has sought a champion in the political arena—someone to amplify its ethos of decentralization and financial freedom. Now, Trump has stepped into that role.
On stage at Nashville’s Bitcoin Conference, he cherished the “crypto crowd,” announcing plans for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, and even pledged to pardon Ross Ulbricht. Handing out burgers at NYC’s PubKey and unveiling his own DeFi project, World Liberty Financial, he embodies the kind of ally the crypto community has yearned for. Trump’s every move seems tailored to resonate with the crypto audience, drawing in donations and vocal support. As Biden and Harris lean towards traditional regulatory voices like Senator Elizabeth Warren, Trump fills the space with bold promises and adaptable politics, perfectly suited to crypto’s quest for an ally.
Yet, some fear this alignment may be short-lived, as Trump’s history suggests he’s willing to change positions if it suits him. While he’s saying all the right things now, the crypto industry should exercise caution. Here are three reasons why this partnership might come with risks.
1) Will Trump Follow Through on His Promises?
Trump’s track record of pivoting on issues is well-known, with former officials from his first term, like John Kelly, describing him as willing to disrupt norms for his goals. This flexibility, while appealing in some respects, raises doubts about his commitment to crypto’s principles. Trump’s involvement in crypto circles, such as his Bitcoin Conference appearance, signals a willingness to monopolize the narrative. Yet, reports suggest he refused to share the stage with Elon Musk, emphasizing that he alone must be the voice of crypto.
Democrats, meanwhile, may have inadvertently pushed crypto into Trump’s camp by cracking down on activities like mining. When U.S. mining operations shifted to states like Texas, Democrats began restricting it on environmental grounds, while Republicans embraced it as part of the energy grid. But what if Democrats reversed their stance? Trump’s response to any political shift remains unpredictable, which could leave crypto caught in the crossfire.
2) Risk of Alienating Those Outside the Republican Sphere
In the quest for political leverage, crypto has largely aligned with the Republican party. Although often unstated, crypto PACs and advocacy groups lean heavily toward GOP-backed candidates. Groups like Stand With Crypto subtly imply their preference, despite not explicitly endorsing Republican candidates. But this alliance risks isolating supporters who may value crypto but not align with the full spectrum of Republican policies. With voices like Elizabeth Warren staunchly opposed, crypto may face challenges winning bipartisan support.
While some consider crypto a “single-issue” stance, endorsing a candidate like Trump inherently ties the industry to a broader array of policies. By rallying behind Trump for favorable regulatory changes, crypto inadvertently supports his stances on unrelated, often divisive issues, from Ukraine policy to social agendas. If crypto pours millions into Trump’s campaign, it might also find itself entangled with policies that could alienate its diverse user base.
As crypto grapples with the Biden Administration’s regulatory scrutiny, Trump’s promises may look appealing. But aligning too closely with Trump could lead to consequences the industry has yet to foresee. The risks of this alliance are as real as the potential gains, and the community may need to weigh whether a political ally in Trump is worth the unpredictable costs.
Feature image by History in HD
