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Donald Trump has been declared the next President of the United States, and the prediction market platform Polymarket has officially resolved its most-watched market on the election outcome. Polymarket, known for its rapidly growing crypto prediction services, experienced unprecedented engagement, with over $3.6 billion in trading volume specifically on this election market.
At the moment, a short dispute window remains open, allowing users to contest the resolution if they believe there has been an error. However, any reversal appears unlikely, as the major networks—The Associated Press, Fox, and NBC—have all confirmed Trump as the winner.
The Rise of Polymarket as a Political Prediction Hub
Polymarket’s model allows users to bet on various real-world events, turning major news topics into accessible, decentralized markets. During this election cycle, the platform attracted a significant following, especially among those interested in political betting. With traditional polls facing increasing skepticism, Polymarket’s predictive tools gained recognition as an alternative source for gauging public sentiment, even appearing in outlets like The New York Times as a supplement to standard polling data.
Polymarket’s election market, now closed, saw a staggering $3.64 billion in betting volume across several candidates. The breakdown included $1.5 billion favoring Trump, $1 billion supporting Vice President Kamala Harris, and $72 million for former Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Other notable figures in the race also attracted bets, with Michelle Obama and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling in $153 million and $141 million, respectively, while musician Kanye West garnered $9 million.
The Odds Throughout the Campaign
Throughout the campaign season, Polymarket users had leaned toward Trump as the frontrunner. His chances of winning reached an all-time high of 71.5% after a widely covered assassination attempt in July. Kamala Harris’s odds, by comparison, peaked at 54% in August, according to Polymarket’s estimates.
Despite the platform’s predictions, traditional polling organizations reported a close race between Trump and Harris, with Harris maintaining a narrow lead by a single percentage point throughout much of the campaign. However, as Election Day approached, an influential poll from Iowa suggested Harris might emerge as the victor with a three-point lead over Trump. This last-minute forecast turned out to be inaccurate, solidifying Polymarket’s reputation as an indicator closer to the eventual outcome.
Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, expressed pride in his platform’s performance. He took to social media to encourage the public to “trust the markets, not the polls,” highlighting Polymarket as a source of truth in electoral predictions. “The Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket,” he added, marking the event as a significant milestone for the platform.
Post-Election Activity on Polymarket
With the conclusion of its flagship election market, Polymarket continues to host other political markets, drawing ongoing interest from users. One of the most active discussions revolves around whether Trump will successfully be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. While Polymarket currently assigns him a 95% likelihood, there remains a 2% probability for Harris and a 2.8% chance for ‘Other.’ This “Other” category has sparked intriguing speculation, with some users citing possible security concerns or unprecedented developments before the inauguration date.
As the election-related buzz fades, Polymarket may face questions about how it will maintain its current momentum. While political events have driven record-breaking activity on the platform, Polymarket may need to diversify its offerings to retain users’ attention long-term.
Speculation Around Polymarket’s Anticipated Token Launch
One potential development could involve Polymarket launching its own token, a move that many community members believe would further incentivize activity and engagement on the platform. Polymarket has operated without charging trading or subscription fees, relying instead on funds from its recent $70 million Series B funding round. Introducing a token could provide the company with additional funding opportunities and reward loyal users.
A prominent Polymarket participant, CSP Trading—also known by the alias CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente—recently speculated about the necessity of a token launch, stating, “It doesn’t seem like there’s any other way for it to make money without an airdrop.” This sentiment resonates with much of the community, many of whom believe that a token issuance would not only support Polymarket financially but also offer users an avenue for potentially lucrative airdrops.
What Lies Ahead for Polymarket?
Polymarket’s role as a crypto-based prediction market has proven valuable in a landscape where traditional polling often falls short, with users placing significant trust in its accuracy over conventional methods. Same generally goes for PolitiFi tokens. The U.S. Presidential election has shown that there is a demand for transparent, data-driven alternatives to standard polls, especially in high-stakes political events.
Looking forward, Polymarket may leverage this momentum to expand its market range or incorporate new features. For instance, launching a native token could align with broader industry trends, allowing users to not only trade on predictions but also earn rewards and enjoy exclusive benefits within the platform.
As Polymarket considers its next steps, it will need to balance its success with the regulatory scrutiny that often accompanies online betting and prediction markets, especially in jurisdictions where political betting faces legal restrictions. Should the company navigate these challenges effectively, it could continue to solidify its standing in both the crypto and mainstream spheres, offering a compelling alternative for users looking to test their predictive skills on a wide array of topics.
In sum, Polymarket’s record-setting $3.6 billion volume on the U.S. election is a landmark achievement that underscores the power of decentralized prediction platforms. With sustained innovation and perhaps a forthcoming token launch, Polymarket could well redefine how people engage with major events, from elections to entertainment, in the years to come.
Feature image by Scottsdale Mint
