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Bitcoin has always had a flair for drama. First it was “magic internet money,” then it became “digital gold.” Now, according to Fidelity Digital Assets, it’s about to pull off its greatest trick yet: making a quarter of its supply vanish from the market.
Not literally vanish, of course, no one’s vaporizing Satoshis. But by the end of 2025, Fidelity says nearly 28% of all Bitcoin could be locked away in wallets that never move, effectively taking those coins off the trading floor. Think of it as Bitcoin’s version of a museum exhibit: “Look, but don’t touch.”
So, who’s doing the hoarding? Two camps. First are the die-hard HODLers, those mysterious wallets that haven’t budged in seven years or more. These folks either lost their private keys, died with them, or are so committed to “number go up” they’d rather part with a limb than their coins. Then there are the corporate whales, companies sitting on 1,000 BTC or more in their treasuries. They don’t exactly trade on emotion; they’re more into “strategic patience,” which is finance-speak for “let’s just sit on this pile and see what happens.”
If Fidelity’s math holds, that’s over 6 million Bitcoin frozen in time by next Christmas. Fast forward to 2032, and the figure could hit 8.3 million BTC, or more than a third of the entire max supply. Cue gasps from the peanut gallery.
History Repeats Itself – With Bigger Numbers
What makes this projection compelling is that it’s not without precedent. Bitcoin has a history of coins going quiet just before major rallies.
Back in 2016–2017, ahead of Bitcoin’s meteoric rise to $20,000, the portion of supply deemed “illiquid” began climbing steadily. Wallets that had held coins for years were unmoved by short-term swings, and that stability laid the foundation for one of Bitcoin’s wildest bull runs.
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Fast forward to 2020–2021 and the pattern repeated. Illiquid supply again swelled, this time just before Bitcoin ripped to nearly $69,000. Researchers later argued that the rally wasn’t just fueled by new demand but by the fact that so much existing supply was off the table. In other words, the squeeze mattered as much as the hype.
Now Fidelity is suggesting we’re on the cusp of a similar setup, only this time, the numbers are much bigger. Instead of 15–20% of supply going illiquid, it could be close to 30%. For anyone who lived through the last cycles, that statistic is less a warning and more a bullish siren song.
Why It Matters
The implications are obvious. If demand rises even modestly, a thinner supply could ignite price moves more dramatic than in previous cycles. Fidelity estimates that the combined value of long-term holders already exceeds $628 billion at today’s prices, a dragon’s hoard that looks less likely to reenter circulation any time soon.
Of course, not every ancient wallet is untouchable. In July, around 80,000 Bitcoins long considered untouchable, coins that hadn’t moved in over a decade, suddenly stirred. It was a reminder that even the most stubborn stash can wake up, sometimes without warning. But history suggests those movements are exceptions, not the rule.
From Cash to Treasure
And maybe that’s the real story here. Bitcoin, once hyped as “peer-to-peer cash,” is acting less like money and more like a vault asset. It’s not the currency of the internet, it’s the treasure chest buried in the backyard. Fidelity’s prediction just adds fuel to that narrative: Bitcoin isn’t moving, and it may not for a long, long time.
So the next time someone tells you Bitcoin is dead money, you might point out that dead money has a funny way of driving prices higher. After all, when nearly 30% of supply goes into hibernation, the coins still awake suddenly look a lot more valuable. And if history is any guide, that’s when the fireworks begin.
