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The collapse of FTX feels like a distant memory. Back in November 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to a shocking low of approximately $15,500, leaving the crypto market drowning in fear and uncertainty. Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin price has soared beyond $100,000, fueled by market optimism and potential policy shifts under the newly instated U.S. administration.
With Donald Trump serving as the 47th President of the United States, the crypto world eagerly awaits his administration’s stance on digital assets. While no official policies have been unveiled, speculation abounds that a pro-crypto approach could further bolster BTC’s upward momentum.
The Four-Year Cycle: History Repeats Itself?
A recurring topic in Bitcoin price discussions is the cryptocurrency’s four-year cycle, dictated by its halving mechanism. It is a supply-cutting event that occurs roughly every four years. Historically, the year following a halving sees exponential price growth, and the current cycle appears to be mirroring its predecessors.
Read Also: Crypto in the Trump Era – What to Expect?
So far, Bitcoin has gained approximately 550% from its November 2022 low during the FTX collapse. Comparatively, during the 2015 to 2018 cycle, Bitcoin price (represented by the blue line in analysis charts) showed a similar trajectory, also gaining around 550% from its cycle low by this stage.
However, it’s important to note that the 2018 to 2022 cycle (green line) saw Bitcoin price climb about 1,300% by this point, more than double the current cycle’s gains. Glassnode data, which uses daily closing prices at 00:00 UTC, underscores these historical patterns and provides a basis for projecting future trends.
Predicting Bitcoin Price Peak in 2025
If BTC’s current cycle continues to mimic the 2015 to 2018 trajectory, the cryptocurrency could finish Q1 2025 with a staggering 1,100% gain from its cycle low, translating to a price of approximately $186,000 per BTC. Further analysis suggests the peak of this cycle might occur in October 2025, with Bitcoin reaching an astounding 11,000% gain, equivalent to a price of around $1.7 million.
Another interesting perspective ties Bitcoin price movements to U.S. presidential terms. During Donald Trump’s first term as president, BTC price skyrocketed 20x. If history were to repeat itself, even a more conservative 10x return during Trump’s current term could push Bitcoin to $1 million.
Will Bitcoin Break $1 Million?
While historical data and cycle analysis offer compelling arguments, external factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment will undoubtedly play a role. The journey to $1 million per Bitcoin hinges not only on past trends but also on the evolving dynamics of the global financial ecosystem.
For now, Bitcoin price remains in the spotlight, with traders and investors closely monitoring its trajectory. Whether it’s $186,000 or $1.7 million, the potential for significant gains keeps BTC’s future as one of the hottest topics in the financial world.
